Core driving factors for high aluminum prices in recent months

1) Geopolitics and macro benefits: The ongoing military conflict between the United States and Iran has hindered navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, and the geopolitical risk premium has supported the bottom of aluminum prices. At the same time, the US dollar index fell slightly to 99.894, as the weakening of the US dollar provided valuation support for commodities denominated in US dollars, coupled with the rise of the stock market boosting market sentiment.
2) Improvement in supply and demand fundamentals: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory continues to trend towards destocking. As of July 30th, mainstream consumer inventories have cumulatively destocked 512000 tons from the May high, with a destocking rate of 35%, the highest in nearly three years. The mismatch between supply and demand provides strong price support. Although there has been a slight fluctuation in short-term inventory (accumulated inventory of 5000 tons on August

3), the absolute inventory level is still in the low range.
Enhanced cost support: The price of bauxite has risen significantly, and the average price of Yangtze River comprehensive bauxite has increased, which has raised the production cost of alumina. Traders' willingness to raise prices has increased, indirectly supporting the price of electrolytic aluminum