The RMB Exchange Rate Has Recently Fluctuated Upwards, And Is Likely To Continue To Fluctuate in Both Directions in The Long Term.

The People's Bank of China authorized the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center to announce that the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the interbank foreign exchange market was 6.8431 yuan per US dollar on May 13, 2026. As of 4:30 PM on May 13, the closing price of the RMB against the US dollar was 6.7905.

Recently, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has shown a fluctuating upward trend, with both onshore and offshore RMB breaking through the 6.8 mark, reaching new highs in recent years.

Experts believe that this round of RMB exchange rate fluctuations is the result of multiple factors, including changes in the external environment and the resilience of the domestic economy.

"In recent trading days, against the backdrop of a strengthening US dollar, the RMB has appreciated against the dollar. The direct factor is the increased market confidence in the stability of my country's external economic and trade environment, which has boosted market sentiment," said Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Orient Securities.

Zhao Qingming, vice president of the FX168 Research Institute, pointed out that from an international perspective, the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran is not yet over, and the external environment remains complex and volatile. my country's overall impact from the Middle East situation is significantly less than that of other economies, an advantage widely recognized by the international market and a crucial external factor supporting the strong performance of the RMB exchange rate.

Internally, my country's GDP grew by 5.0% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, with a series of pro-growth policies continuing to take effect, indicating a positive fundamental outlook for the Chinese economy.

"Overall, the RMB exchange rate has been stable with a slight upward bias since the beginning of the year, driven by a strong start to the macroeconomy in the first quarter, a continued stabilization of the external trade environment, and a significant acceleration in export growth, all of which have provided important support for the RMB exchange rate," said Wang Qing.

A report from the National Economic Research Center of Peking University points out that China's relatively stable economy and society, along with rapid growth in high-tech industries, provide solid support for the stability of the RMB's value.

Looking ahead, the market generally believes that the RMB will still have some appreciation momentum in the short term, but the probability of a sustained unilateral rise or fall is low. In the long term, it will continue to fluctuate in both directions. Industry insiders emphasize that the RMB exchange rate will continue to be influenced by market supply and demand, maintaining basic stability at a reasonable and balanced level, better serving the high-quality development of the real economy and high-level opening up to the outside world.

"The RMB exchange rate will be mainly influenced by factors such as the US dollar index, the external economic and trade environment, and my country's exports. Since April, the situation in the Middle East has undergone a process of 'from fighting to negotiating,' but there may still be changes in the later stages. This will be the dominant factor affecting the US dollar's trend, and the global foreign exchange market will remain highly volatile," Wang Qing pointed out. Furthermore, the stabilizing trend of my country's external economic and trade environment is expected to continue in the near future, and exports will maintain relatively rapid growth overall. In summary, the RMB exchange rate will generally return to a pattern of inverse fluctuations with the US dollar, with relatively small fluctuations, and a stable to slightly stronger trend will continue in the short term.

A report from the National Economic Research Center of Peking University predicts that the RMB exchange rate will fluctuate between 6.77 and 6.85 in May 2026.