Trend Of A00 Aluminum Raw Material Prices in 2026

📈 Annual trend review
At the beginning of the year, it surged to a high of approximately 23300 yuan/ton. Due to the impact of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, it reached a high of 25250 yuan/ton on March 9th.
High volatility: After reaching 25140 yuan again in mid April, the center of gravity gradually shifted downwards. The average spot price of A00 in the first half of the year was 24164 yuan/ton, an increase of 3852 yuan/ton compared to the first half of 2025.
Q3 rebound: In early September, spot A00 aluminum prices briefly rebounded to the range of 24320-24360 yuan/ton, up about 17.53% year-on-year.
Fourth quarter decline: In late October, the A00 aluminum price in East China fell to around 23600-23900 yuan/ton, and the main force of Shanghai aluminum futures operated in the range of 23000-23400 yuan/ton. ‌‌
🔍 Core influencing factors
Rigid supply constraints: Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approaching the "ceiling" of 45 million tons per year, with a production capacity of 45.209 million tons starting in June 2026, and a historical high capacity utilization rate of 97.7%. The potential for further growth is limited.
Overseas supply disruption: The Middle East conflict has affected about 9% of global electrolytic aluminum supply. After the attack on the EGA aluminum plant in the United Arab Emirates, production resumed slowly, but accelerated in the second half of the year. It is expected to fully recover by the end of Q1 2027.
Low inventory reduction: As of October 26th, domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory has dropped to 550000 tons, LME deliverable inventory is less than 180000 tons, and global aluminum inventory is at a historical low.
Differentiation of demand structure: The demand for aluminum in the construction industry is under pressure, but the demand for aluminum in emerging fields such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, energy storage, and power grids continues to grow, and the penetration of aluminum replacing copper is accelerating. ‌‌
⚠️ Outlook for the coming period
There are significant differences in opinions among institutions regarding the year 2027: industry polls show that 44% of representatives believe that the price center of electrolytic aluminum should be between 20000-22000 yuan/ton; Morgan Stanley predicts that aluminum prices will further decline to $2850 per ton in 2027, and the global aluminum market may turn into a surplus; However, institutions such as Zhejiang Securities believe that the supply-demand gap has widened for three consecutive years, and aluminum prices have long-term high support. ‌‌