Aluminum Material Trend Of Today

Market trends
Aluminum:
On the futures side, on November 4th, Shanghai Aluminum 2412 opened high with wide fluctuations and closed narrow with gains, closing at 20855 (+60) yuan/ton, up 0.29% from the previous trading day. The weighted trading volume of Shanghai Aluminum was 306000 lots (+81281 lots), and the holding volume was 445000 lots (+2655 lots).
On the spot side, on November 4th, the average price in Foshan was 20710 (+50) yuan/ton, with inventory cleared and good transactions; The average price in East China is 20820 (+40) yuan/ton; The average price in Central Plains is 20780 (+60) yuan/ton. Aluminum rod processing fee consolidation, just needed a transaction.
Inventory: Wind data shows that on November 4th, the aluminum ingot warehouse was 585000 tons, a decrease of 11000 tons from October 31st.

Alumina spot continues to rise, and the price difference between near and far months continues to expand

Viewpoint logic: The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum in China continues to increase slightly, while the downstream operating rate of aluminum continues to decline slightly due to environmental protection and the approaching traditional off-season factors. The inventory of aluminum ingots continued to decline this week, reaching a historical low for the same period. The uncertainty of the US presidential election remains, market risk appetite has decreased, commodity markets are volatile, and aluminum ingot costs have significantly increased, providing support for futures prices. The overall fundamental driving force is insufficient, and it is recommended to take a short-term wait-and-see approach and wait for opportunities to lower prices after a correction.

Aluminum oxide:
On the futures side, on November 4th, alumina 2501 opened high and closed narrow, closing at 4972 (-4) yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.08% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 426000 lots (+60425 lots), and the position was 278000 lots (+11705).
On the spot side, on November 4th, the spot price of alumina continued to rise. The average prices of alumina in Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, Guangxi, Guizhou, and Xinjiang were 5150 yuan/ton, 5140 yuan/ton, 5250 yuan/ton, 5060 yuan/ton, 5070 yuan/ton, and 5600 yuan/ton, respectively. The prices increased by 50 yuan/ton, 40 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, 30 yuan/ton, 40 yuan/ton, and 50 yuan/ton, respectively. Due to the slow resumption of domestic mineral production and the possibility of no production restrictions in Yunnan in the fourth quarter, as well as news disturbances in Guinea, the supply of alumina spot was slightly tight. Downstream winter storage and stocking willingness was positive, and overseas prices continued to rise. Domestic prices continued to rise.

The import is inverted, which drives up the willingness to export. As the environmental impact increases and equipment maintenance increases, the operating rate of alumina enterprises continues to decline. The production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in the fourth quarter is expected to continue to increase, boosting demand for alumina. Aluminum plants are storing alumina in winter ahead of schedule, exacerbating the shortage of spot goods. The inventory is low, and the possibility of improvement in the short term is low. The production capacity built in the fourth quarter of 2025 will continue to increase, and the supply may improve in the latter part of the first quarter of next year, depending on the ore supply situation. Strong reality and weak expectations, sustained near strong and far weak. It is recommended to hold in a regular position, while radical investors can invest in long-term short positions and pay attention to stop losses.