It Is Expected That The Probability Of A Short-term Decrease in Aluminum Prices Is Not High July 4th

Overnight alumina fluctuated strongly, with AO2407 closing at 3892 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.52%. The position increased by 1789 lots to 51000 lots. Shanghai aluminum fluctuated strongly, with AL2407 closing at 20475 yuan/ton overnight, up 0.22%. The position increased by 1112 lots to 182200 lots. In terms of spot goods, the comprehensive price of SMM alumina has retreated to 3903 yuan/ton. The spot discount for aluminum ingots was collected at 60 yuan/ton, and the quotation for Foshan A00 fell to 20100 yuan/ton. For Wuxi A00, a discount of 200 yuan/ton was reported. The downstream aluminum rod processing fee remained stable in Linyi, Henan, Wuxi, Xinjiang, and Guangdong, with a decrease of 30 yuan/ton. For Baotou and Nanchang, an increase of 10-30 yuan/ton was made. The aluminum rod 1A60 remained stable, and the processing fee for the 6/8 series increased by 67 yuan/ton; Aluminum alloy ADC12 and A380 remained stable, while A356 and ZLD102/104 increased by 100 yuan/ton. Guinea has entered the rainy season, and the tense situation of sea and mining has become apparent in the recent increase in imported mines. Several alumina plants have undergone varying degrees of maintenance, and the expectation of loose domestic mines has not been fulfilled. In the short term, alumina remains at a high level. As the price of electrolytic aluminum retreats and downstream replenishment drives the reduction of aluminum ingot inventory, the latest real estate data and industrial profile orders have both declined. The off-season effect is gradually strengthening, and the fundamentals are still driven downwards. However, it is noted that there are many macro uncertainties at the current stage, and the strong cost support provided by aluminum oxide makes it unlikely that aluminum prices will decrease in the short term.

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