Whats' Will The Aluminum Material Trend?

Aluminum: The US dollar index is bound to rise, but concerns about oversupply have led funds to turn to selling. Overnight, aluminum prices plummeted, with LME three-month aluminum prices falling 1.79% to $2416 per ton. After a low opening in the domestic night market, there was a volatile rebound, and the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum closed below 19810 yuan/ton. There is differentiation in the morning spot market, with trading in the East China market showing signs of fatigue and downstream purchasing intensity becoming increasingly weak. Holders actively sell for cash, with the mainstream transaction price in the East China market around 19770 yuan/ton, a discount of about 40% compared to futures. The trading in the South China market has rebounded, with holders holding up prices and being reluctant to sell. Downstream traders are actively replenishing inventory at low prices, and traders are also highly motivated to receive goods. The mainstream transaction price is around 19600 yuan/ton. In the context of overall weak consumption and overall stable supply, the current aluminum price is under pressure. The seasonal weakening of consumption during the current off-season, coupled with the economic slowdown, has also led to pessimistic expectations for consumption prospects. However, domestic production still maintains a growth trend, and although imports are difficult to recover due to losses, there is still a certain amount of imports. Short-term advice: deal with high and short positions. Pay attention to policy trends.

Aluminum oxide: Aluminum oxide futures opened lower and rose higher in the night session, with the main contract closing above 3763 yuan/ton. There is no significant change in the spot market, and some electrolytic aluminum plants purchase a small amount of spot goods. Traders do not receive many goods, and holders of goods ship normally, maintaining a delicate balance in the market. The spot price remains stable at around 3900 yuan/ton. The short-term market is currently in a tight equilibrium state, with production mainly showing a slight upward trend, and downstream consumption tending to stabilize. Considering that the overall inventory of alumina in downstream electrolytic aluminum plants is low and demand is tight, spot prices are still mainly consolidating at high levels. However, there is a significant expectation of incremental growth on the supply side, which suppresses the rebound of futures prices, especially for far-month contracts. The market will maintain a near-strong and far-weak structure. Short-term advice is to engage in regular trading. Pay attention to the impact of Indonesian policies.